Interest Rate Hikes Eroding Housing Affordability

Bill Fraser • July 10, 2018

After improving slightly late last year, housing affordability has now reached “crisis levels” in Vancouver and is posing a “tremendous challenge” in Toronto.

That’s the assessment from RBC’s latest Housing Trends and Affordability report, which says higher interest rates are the main reason for a deterioration in affordability right across the country.

“The winning streak for housing affordability in Canada ended,” the report reads, noting the aggregate affordability measure for Canada rose by 0.4 percentage points to 48.4% in Q1. “This rise entirely reversed the slight 0.3 percentage-point decline recorded in the previous quarter—the first decline in 10 quarters.”

Unsurprisingly, Toronto and Vancouver led the way as the country’s least affordable markets.

In Vancouver it takes 87.8% of household income to cover the costs of home ownership, the report said, while in Toronto that percentage is 74.2%. Compare that against the national average of 48.4%, or 43.7% in Montreal, 43% in Calgary and just 28% in Edmonton.

“[Affordability] is at crisis levels in Vancouver and poses a tremendous challenge for many Toronto-area buyers despite improving in the past two quarters,” the report noted.

Overall, higher interest rates were cited as the main factor for sending homeownership costs to a multi-decade high, while the situation was amplified in both Vancouver and Victoria due to a return to appreciating prices.

Although affordability in Toronto remains a concern, the report noted that it was one of only two markets, along with Winnipeg, to see a small improvement.

“The main reason was that home prices fell enough in both markets to counteract the effect of higher interest rates,” RBC noted. “In the case of the Toronto area, the mortgage stress test that came into effect in January added further downward pressure on property values—which were still adjusting to last year’s Fair Housing Plan implemented by the Ontario government.”

But that may not be the case for much longer, as the Toronto Real Estate Board’s latest data shows the average price of a home in the Greater Toronto Area climbed to a 13-month high in June—up 2 percent year-over-year to $807,871.

National Bank published similar findings to RBC recently in its Housing Affordability Monitor. It noted that the mortgage payment on a representative home as a percentage of median income rose by 1.2 points—the 11th straight month that this metric had increased.

Given the limited capacity for Vancouver and Toronto homebuyers to put more of their income towards housing than they already are, the National Bank report concluded that prices could start to decline should interest rates continue to increase.

“Since we don’t see how Vancouver and Toronto homebuyers could pay a higher share of their incomes for shelter, a downward adjustment of prices is conceivable,” the authors write. “If our scenario for interest rates out to the end of 2019 materializes (+75 basis point on the 5-year mortgage rate), and assuming historically average income growth, prices would need to fall on the order of 2% to keep home affordability from deteriorating further.”


This article was written by Steve Huebl and was originally published on Canadian Mortgage Trends on July 5th 2018.


BILL FRASER
OWNER / MORTGAGE EXPERT

BOOK AN APPOINTMENT CONTACT ME
RECENT POSTS

Should You Get Pre-approved For A Mortgage?

By Bill Fraser • June 10, 2025
If you’re thinking about buying a property, but you’re not sure where to start, you’ve come to the right place! Let’s discuss how getting pre-approved is one of the first steps in your home buying journey. Just like you wouldn’t go into a restaurant without knowing if you have enough money to buy your meal, it’s not a good idea to be shopping for a home without an understanding of how much you can afford. You can browse MLS from your couch all you want beforehand, but when you’re ready to start looking at properties with a real estate agent, you need a pre-approval. Now, as there may be some confusion around exactly what a pre-approval does and doesn’t do, let’s discuss it in detail. First of all, a pre-approval is not magic, and it’s not binding. A pre-approval is not a contract that will guarantee mortgage financing despite changes to your financial situation. Instead, a pre-approval is simply the first look at your overall financial health that will point you in the right direction before you’re ready to apply for a mortgage. Said in another way, a pre-approval is a map that gives you the plan to secure an actual approval. After going through the pre-approval process, you’ll know how to qualify for a mortgage and at what amount. When considering your mortgage application, lenders look at your income, credit history, assets vs liabilities, and the property itself. Working through a pre-approval will cover all these areas and will uncover any major obstacles that might be in your way of securing financing. The best time to secure a pre-approval is as soon as possible; it’s never a bad idea to have a plan. Here are a few of the obstacles that a pre-approval can uncover: You’ve recently changed jobs, and you’re still on probation Your income relies heavily on extra shifts or commissions You’re unaware of factual mistakes or collections on your credit report You don’t have an established credit profile You don’t have enough money saved for a downpayment Additional debt is lowering the amount you qualify for Really anything you don't know that you don't know Even if you believe you have all your ducks in a row, working through the pre-approval process with an independent mortgage professional will ensure you have the best chance of securing a final approval. As a point of clarity, a pre-approval is not the same as a pre-qualification. This is not typing a few things into a website, calculating some numbers, and thinking you’re all set. A pre-approval includes providing your financial information, looking at your credit report, discussing a plan for securing mortgage financing with a mortgage professional, and even submitting documents ahead of time. Mortgage financing can be a daunting process; it doesn’t have to be. Having a plan in place and doing as much as you can beforehand is essential to ensuring a smooth home buying experience. As there is no cost for getting a mortgage pre-approval, there is absolutely no risk. Consider starting the process right now! If you’d like to walk through your financial situation and get pre-approved for a mortgage, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to work with you!

Locking in a Variable Rate Mortgage

By Bill Fraser • May 27, 2025
If you have a variable rate mortgage and recent economic news has you thinking about locking into a fixed rate, here’s what you can expect will happen. You can expect to pay a higher interest rate over the remainder of your term, while you could end up paying a significantly higher mortgage penalty should you need to break your mortgage before the end of your term. Now, each lender has a slightly different way that they handle the process of switching from a variable rate to a fixed rate. Still, it’s safe to say that regardless of which lender you’re with, you’ll end up paying more money in interest and potentially way more money down the line in mortgage penalties should you have to break your mortgage. Interest rates on fixed rate mortgages Fixed rate mortgages come with a higher interest rate than variable rate mortgages. If you’re a variable rate mortgage holder, this is one of the reasons you went variable in the first place; to secure the lower rate. The perception is that fixed rates are somewhat “safe” while variable rates are “uncertain.” And while it’s true that because the variable rate is tied to prime, it can increase (or decrease) within your term, there are controls in place to ensure that rates don’t take a roller coaster ride. The Bank of Canada has eight prescheduled rate announcements per year, where they rarely move more than 0.25% per announcement, making it impossible for your variable rate to double overnight. Penalties on fixed rate mortgages Each lender has a different way of calculating the cost to break a mortgage. However, generally speaking, breaking a variable rate mortgage will cost roughly three months of interest or approximately 0.5% of the total mortgage balance. While breaking a fixed rate mortgage could cost upwards of 4% of the total mortgage balance should you need to break it early and you’re required to pay an interest rate differential penalty. For example, on a $500k mortgage balance, the cost to break your variable rate would be roughly $2500, while the cost to break your fixed rate mortgage could be as high as $20,000, eight times more depending on the lender and how they calculate their interest rate differential penalty. The flexibility of a variable rate mortgage vs the cost of breaking a fixed rate mortgage is likely another reason you went with a variable rate in the first place. Breaking your mortgage contract Did you know that almost 60% of Canadians will break their current mortgage at an average of 38 months? And while you might have the best intention of staying with your existing mortgage for the remainder of your term, sometimes life happens, you need to make a change. Here’s is a list of potential reasons you might need to break your mortgage before the end of the term. Certainly worth reviewing before committing to a fixed rate mortgage. Sale of your property because of a job relocation. Purchase of a new home. Access equity from your home. Refinance your home to pay off consumer debt. Refinance your home to fund a new business. Because you got married, you combine assets and want to live together in a new property. Because you got divorced, you need to split up your assets and access the equity in your property Because you or someone close to you got sick Because you lost your job or because you got a new one You want to remove someone from the title. You want to pay off your mortgage before the maturity date. Essentially, locking your variable rate mortgage into a fixed rate is choosing to voluntarily pay more interest to the lender while giving up some of the flexibility should you need to break your mortgage. If you’d like to discuss this in greater detail, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through all your mortgage options and provide you with professional mortgage advice.
More Posts