Bank of Canada Rate Announcement Oct 28th, 2020
Bill Fraser • October 28, 2020
The Bank of Canada today maintained its target for the overnight rate at the effective lower bound of ¼ percent, with the Bank Rate at ½ percent and the deposit rate at ¼ percent. The Bank is maintaining its extraordinary forward guidance, reinforced and supplemented by its quantitative easing (QE) program. The Bank is recalibrating the QE program to shift purchases towards longer-term bonds, which have more direct influence on the borrowing rates that are most important for households and businesses. At the same time, total purchases will be gradually reduced to at least $4 billion a week. The Governing Council judges that, with these combined adjustments, the QE program is providing at least as much monetary stimulus as before.
The global and Canadian economic outlooks have evolved largely as anticipated in the July Monetary Policy Report (MPR), with rapid expansions as economies reopened giving way to slower growth, despite considerable remaining excess capacity. Looking ahead, rising COVID-19 infections are likely to weigh on the economic outlook in many countries, and growth will continue to rely heavily on policy support.
In the United States, GDP growth rebounded strongly but appears to be slowing considerably. China’s economic output is back to pre-pandemic levels and its recovery continues to broaden. Emerging-market economies have been hit harder, especially those with severe outbreaks. The recovery in Europe is slowing amid mounting lockdowns. Overall, global GDP is projected to contract by about 4 percent in 2020 before growing by just over 4 ½ percent, on average, in 2021–22.
Oil prices remain about 30 percent below pre-pandemic levels. Meanwhile, non-energy commodity prices, on average, have more than fully recovered. Despite continued low oil prices, the Canadian dollar has appreciated since July, largely reflecting a broad-based depreciation of the US dollar.
In Canada, the rebound in employment and GDP was stronger than expected as the economy reopened through the summer. The economy is now transitioning to a more moderate recuperation phase. In the fourth quarter, growth is expected to slow markedly, due in part to rising COVID-19 case numbers. The economic effects of the pandemic are highly uneven across sectors and are particularly affecting low-income workers. Recognizing these challenges, governments have extended and modified business and income support programs.
After a decline of about 5 ½ percent in 2020, the Bank expects Canada’s economy to grow by almost 4 percent on average in 2021 and 2022. Growth will likely be choppy as domestic demand is influenced by the evolution of the virus and its impact on consumer and business confidence. Considering the likely long-lasting effects of the pandemic, the Bank has revised down its estimate of Canada’s potential growth over the projection horizon.
CPI inflation was at 0.5 percent in September and is expected to stay below the Bank’s target band of 1 to 3 percent until early 2021, largely due to low energy prices. Measures of core inflation are all below 2 percent, consistent with an economy where demand has fallen by more than supply. Inflation is expected to remain below target throughout the projection horizon.
As the economy recuperates, it will continue to require extraordinary monetary policy support. The Governing Council will hold the policy interest rate at the effective lower bound until economic slack is absorbed so that the 2 percent inflation target is sustainably achieved. In our current projection, this does not happen until into 2023. The Bank is continuing its QE program and recalibrating it as described above. The program will continue until the recovery is well underway. We are committed to providing the monetary policy stimulus needed to support the recovery and achieve the inflation objective.
The next scheduled date for announcing the overnight rate target is December 9, 2020. The next full update of the Bank’s outlook for the economy and inflation, including risks to the projection, will be published in the MPR on January 20, 2021.
RECENT POSTS
Thinking About Buying a Home? Here’s What to Know Before You Start Whether you're buying your very first home or preparing for your next move, the process can feel overwhelming—especially with so many unknowns. But it doesn’t have to be. With the right guidance and preparation, you can approach your home purchase with clarity and confidence. This article will walk you through a high-level overview of what lenders look for and what you’ll need to consider in the early stages of buying a home. Once you’re ready to move forward with a pre-approval, we’ll dive into the details together. 1. Are You Credit-Ready? One of the first things a lender will evaluate is your credit history. Your credit profile helps determine your risk level—and whether you're likely to repay your mortgage as agreed. To be considered “established,” you’ll need: At least two active credit accounts (like credit cards, loans, or lines of credit) Each with a minimum limit of $2,500 Reporting for at least two years Just as important: your repayment history. Make all your payments on time, every time. A missed payment won’t usually impact your credit unless you’re 30 days or more past due—but even one slip can lower your score. 2. Is Your Income Reliable? Lenders are trusting you with hundreds of thousands of dollars, so they want to be confident that your income is stable enough to support regular mortgage payments. Salaried employees in permanent positions generally have the easiest time qualifying. If you’re self-employed, or your income includes commission, overtime, or bonuses, expect to provide at least two years’ worth of income documentation. The more predictable your income, the easier it is to qualify. 3. What’s Your Down Payment Plan? Every mortgage requires some amount of money upfront. In Canada, the minimum down payment is: 5% on the first $500,000 of the purchase price 10% on the portion above $500,000 20% for homes over $1 million You’ll also need to show proof of at least 1.5% of the purchase price for closing costs (think legal fees, appraisals, and taxes). The best source of a down payment is your own savings, supported by a 90-day history in your bank account. But gifted funds from immediate family and proceeds from a property sale are also acceptable. 4. How Much Can You Actually Afford? There’s a big difference between what you feel you can afford and what you can prove you can afford. Lenders base your approval on verifiable documentation—not assumptions. Your approval amount depends on a variety of factors, including: Income and employment history Existing debts Credit score Down payment amount Property taxes and heating costs for the home All of these factors are used to calculate your debt service ratios—a key indicator of whether your mortgage is affordable. Start Early, Plan Smart Even if you’re months (or more) away from buying, the best time to start planning is now. When you work with an independent mortgage professional, you get access to expert advice at no cost to you. We can: Review your credit profile Help you understand how lenders view your income Guide your down payment planning Determine how much you can qualify to borrow Build a roadmap if your finances need some fine-tuning If you're ready to start mapping out your home buying plan or want to know where you stand today, let’s talk. It would be a pleasure to help you get mortgage-ready.
With the latest stats claiming that about half of marriages end in divorce and with around three-quarters of Canadians being homeowners, it’s important to know how to handle your mortgage if you decide to separate. Here’s a quick list of things to consider. Keep making your payments. A mortgage is a legally binding contract between you and the lender. It doesn’t take marriage into account. If your name appears on the mortgage, you're responsible for making sure the regular payments are made. A marital breakdown does not give you an excuse not to make your mortgage payments. If, during your marriage, you've relied on your spouse to make the mortgage payments and you aren’t certain payments are being made after separating, it's in your best interest to contact the lender directly to verify your mortgage is being paid. If payments aren't being made, it could affect your credit score or worse; the lender could start foreclosure proceedings. There is always a financial cost to break your mortgage. When working through how to split your finances, you decided to either refinance your mortgage, remove someone from the title, or sell the property, keep in mind that you will incur legal costs. If you’re in the middle of a term, the penalty for breaking your mortgage might be significant, especially if you have a fixed-rate mortgage. It’s certainly worth contacting your mortgage lender directly to verify the cost of breaking your mortgage. Having that information accessible when writing out your separation agreement will provide increased clarity. Listing your marital status as separated or divorced. When completing a mortgage application for securing new mortgage financing, when you list your marital status as separated or divorced, you can expect that a lender will want to see your legal separation agreement or your divorce papers. The lender wants to make sure you aren’t responsible for support payments. So if you haven’t finalized the paperwork, expect delays in securing mortgage financing. It could be harder to qualify for a new mortgage. With the separation of assets also comes the separation of incomes. If you qualified for your existing mortgage on a double income, you might find it hard to maintain the same quality of lifestyle post-separation. This is where careful planning comes in. Working closely with your independent mortgage professional will ensure you understand exactly where you stand. You’ll want to put together a plan for how to handle the mortgage on the matrimonial home. Purchasing the matrimonial home from your ex. There are special considerations given to people going through a separation to buy out the matrimonial home. Instead of looking at the transaction like a refinance where you can only borrow up to 80% of the property’s value, lenders will consider one spouse buying out the other up to a 95% loan to value ratio. This comes in handy when dividing assets and liabilities. Navigating the ins and outs of mortgage financing isn’t something you have to do alone. If you're going through a separation and you’d like to discuss all your mortgage options, please connect anytime. It would be a pleasure to walk you through the process.
